June 13, 2021


National Service for the Pastoral of Migrants

Long-term prognosis: much more immigration migration.

Statistics Netherlands today released its long-term forecast for immigrant migration.
In the long term, Statistics Netherlands expects no less than 166,000 immigrant immigrants and 143,000 immigrant immigrants. The result is a net immigration of 23,000 non-natives.

Figure 1 shows the total number of migrants broken down by 1st and 2nd generation by group of origin.

The largest group of immigrants is, of course, the 1st generation: a total of 154,000, and 78% (119,000) of them then leave over time. There will then be 34,000 net.
Of course, more (24,000) start from the second generation than back (13,000), because this generation was by definition born in the Netherlands. That 13,000 people represent 53% of those who leave, in other words, just over half will return.

By far the largest group is the Western group with 102,000 people, or six out of ten immigrants. Nearly 9 out of 10 also leave.

Among non-Westerns, you see 65,000 immigrants and 53,000 emigrants, which leaves you with 12,000 net per year.

Of the first generation, 56,000 came and 38,000 left, or 68% of immigrants. 18,000 remain in the Netherlands each year until their death.

This becomes quite interesting when you compare this recent forecast to that of 2 years ago.

Much more immigration and emigration, but the balance is slightly lower.

I will pay much more attention to these forecasts in the coming days.