Migration 2015 and the Influence of Asylum.

Statistics Netherlands today released preliminary figures on immigration and emigration. Immigration exceeded 200,000 and emigration nearly 150,000. In this article, other figures are not included in the Statistics Netherlands article. Like, for example, people born in Turkey, Morocco, etc. and on a continent like Africa.

It is important to know what the relationship is between asylum seekers (and return travel) and migration. That’s why I added an attachment at the bottom explaining this. I explain, for example, that immigration for 2015 is potentially much higher than the official figures show. I am also talking about ‘war zones’.

Immigration. You are already immigrated to the Netherlands if you plan to stay in our country for at least four months. It’s very short. Usually (as far as I know), this period is one year in other countries. You are an official immigrant if you wish to leave our country for more than eight months.
The four-month period for immigration means that we know a lot of immigration from people who only stay in our country for a short period of time, such as students and migrant workers. It also ensures that twenty percent of the “immigrants” left within a year.

First, countries with a comparison 2015 to 2014. Then migration over the last 20 years and then the concepts of asylum appendix.

The country’s figures:
The CBS table does not provide the figures for all countries of birth. The table has not been revised for some time and, as a result, temporary figures are lacking in countries such as Eritrea and India.
These are temporary figures and corrections will follow. The final figures (with all countries) usually arrive around May.

The increase in immigration from 20,000 to more than 200,000 and a slightly lower emigration of 146,000 resulted in an increase in net migration from 21,000 to 56,000, as shown in the table below.

We are seeing an increase in all continents, with the exception of Europe. Europe (excluding NL) remained the main supplier with more than 40% (84,000) of immigrants. Emigration was 55,000, which means a net immigration of about 30,000. Just over 15,000 immigrants came from Africa, an increase of 10%. Emigration was 8,000 and the balance increased from 1,600 to 7,400. Asia accounted for three-quarters of the increase in immigration. Of course, by the Syrians.

In total, we have close to 175,000 foreign-born immigrants. Just over 100,000 emigrated, resulting in a net immigration of 75,000.

77,000 immigrants came from the EU, the same as the previous year. It is remarkable that the number of immigrants from Eastern Europe has decreased by 2,200 and that emigration has increased slightly, net immigration has decreased from 3,000 to 11,000.

There were mainly fewer Poles and because their emigration increased, the balance decreased from 3,000 to 9,000. Fewer Bulgarians and Romanians came.

Immigration from its native Morocco fell considerably by 600 (one-quarter), but emigration also decreased slightly to 1,300. Net came to 500 more. With immigration, you should not immediately think that they are all “newcomers”. An important part concerns immigrants who immigrate for the second (or even more often).

With the Turks, you see an almost equal number of immigrants (3,700). As emigration fell from 700 to 4,500, the number of net departures halved to 800.

It is, of course, Syrians who have contributed the most to the increase in immigration. Their immigration has increased from more than 12,000 to nearly 21,000. As expected, there has been virtually no emigration (so far).

Somali immigration has been halved to 900 and emigration has increased from 300 to 1,300. Net 400 more Somalis have left our country than they have entered. This is quite remarkable, except that we have already seen it: Somalis often leave for England as soon as they have become Dutch.

I have brought together five countries of origin of many asylum seekers (Afghanistan, Somalia, Iran, Iraq and Syria). Their immigration has increased from 14,000 to 25,000. Emigration also increased slightly to 4,400, a net increase of nearly 21,000. Because of course there are more countries with asylum migrants, you should think of a net number of 25,000 asylum seekers in 2015.

Finally, the Netherlands. Immigration (i.e. those who emigrated earlier) dropped by 500 to just over 28,000. Emigration fell from 1,400 to 45,200, meaning that nearly 17,000 have left, 900 fewer than in 2014. Note that this is the country of birth. So it’s not just cheese, it’s second-generation immigrants. In recent years, the majority of net emigrants have been trained by this second generation.

Added 12:05 In the CBS article, the second figure also includes Ethiopians. However, I suspect they are Eritreans (nationality) born in Ethiopia. Both countries were once a country. Virtually no asylum seekers come from Ethiopia.

The evolution of the last 20 years

It is clear that there is a busy schedule. Net we are back to the level of the years around 2000. Ten years ago, we were still facing a withdrawal. After 2006, Eastern European countries joined, which again led to an increase, and over the past two years, migration to asylum has increased again.

For this year, I expect a sharp increase in immigration and net migration. This is due to the fact that a significant portion of last year’s 43,000 asylum seekers (including their internship) will receive a residence permit (see Appendix).

Appendix asylum seekers, family members and migration

There is often a difference not between refugee claims and immigration. Officially, a person who comes to our country is only an immigrant if he is registered as a resident of that country in the register of the population of the commune.

As an asylum seeker, you will only be registered if you receive a residence permit – possibly even after a stay of more than six months in a reception centre – and will be registered in the municipality’s population register. Since the procedure for asylum seekers now lasts an average of six months, registration with the municipality will often take place only within one year of the asylum seeker’s application for a residence permit.

Another important group is the fugitive family members of asylum seekers who have obtained a residence permit. Nareis can only be applied for after the asylum seeker obtains a residence permit. On average, this procedure now also takes six months. If the application – a visa called MVV – has been approved, the return trip may come to our country to join the former asylum seeker. The nareis then officially receive a residence permit and are registered in the population register. Nareis is therefore not seeking asylum.

Asylum seeker and nareis immigration is the asylum migration mentioned.

In 2014, 43,000 people applied for asylum (first asylum seekers), 75% to 32,000 will eventually receive a residence permit. This could have happened last year or will happen this year. It is estimated that 0.8 follow-up travellers will follow per authorized asylum seeker. That’s 26,000. In total, the first asylum seekers deliver 58,000 asylum seekers. So they have already immigrated or it will happen this year.

The number of asylum-seekers was “only” 31,000 last year, according to Statistics Netherlands, which also included many asylum seekers between 2014. So we are getting a lot of asylum migration this year. Statistics Netherlands assumes 70,000 migrants.

“Refugees of war.” Many people think that only people fleeing a war zone get a residence permit. That’s not right. As a gay atheist, you can get your chest wet in a country like Saudi Arabia. Coming from Syria or Eritrea gives the Netherlands and the rest of the EU a nearly 100% chance, while Eritrea is not a war zone. As a Kosovar or Albanian, you can shake it. Coming from war zones like Afghanistan and Iraq does not provide 100% certainty. Personal history plays an important role here. The number of asylum seekers in a country “where you can live without problems” is low. Especially in the Netherlands.